Probability is a measurement that is applied to events. It is the measurement of the likelihood, or chance of an event happening.
Discuss and explore doubt and certainty with your children. Use the "language of probability" when discussing whether you think events will or will not happen. For example:
A good way to introduce probability is to choose and discuss a number of different events and rank them in order based on how likely you think it is that they will occur. Such discussions will often be subjective and different people will rank events in a different order based on their own experiences and opinion. Ordering events this way just requires a judgment on whether an event is more, or less, likely to happen than the other chosen events.
The next stage after ranking events in order of likelihood is to use language of as a form of measurement. Terms such as those listed above (e.g. "certain", "very likely", "impossible") can be attached the events. This can be followed by the introduction of numeric values as a measure of probability.
As the table above shows, a scale of 0 to 1 can be used to measure possibility.
Having used the language of probability to subjectively describe the chances of various events happening, we can move on to use more objective methods that are based more on evidence than on opinion. Two such methods are described below.
Probability can be calculated using the formula below:
|=||Total Favorable Outcomes|
|Total Number of Possible Outcomes|
The two examples below show how the formula can be applied using the example of a deck of 52 playing cards that have been shuffled and that are in no particular order.
|What is the probability of turning over the six of diamonds?|
|There is only 1 six of diamonds in a pack of 52 cards.||
|What is the probability of turning over a King?|
There are only 4 Kings in a pack of 52 cards.
|Probability can be shown as a fraction, a percentage, or a decimal.|
The probabilities above can be shown as follows:
Note: "P" followed by the event referred to in parenthesis is used to represent probability in formulas.
The two "classic" experiments that you can do with your children are the coin toss and the roll of the dice. Before doing these, discuss what the expected outcomes might be. e.g. "how many times do you expect tails to come up if we toss the coin 50 times?" Record the outcomes and use the formula below to compare the results to the theoretical probability.
|=||Number of occurrences|
|Total number of attempts|
Repeat the experiment with different numbers of attempts. Discuss with your children how the results might compare if if just a small, or a very large number of attempts are made.
If you have two dice you can use them with your children to explore and experiment with probabilities for two independent events. Predicting the number of possible outcomes with more than one event can be tricky. Using a table, like the one below, showing all possible outcomes for each event is a good help.
The table below shows all possible outcomes when rolling two dice, A and B.
What is the probability of rolling a total of 5?
We need to identify the number of outcomes that result in a total of 5. Looking at the table we can see there are 4 such outcomes.
We then divide by the total number of possible outcomes which is 36.
|P (Total of 5)||=||4||=||1|